Background

In September 2008 the 1st S4D-workshop 'Modelling coupled social-ecological responses to climate variability and change in Arctic marine systems' brought together a small group of natural and social scientists, as well as modeling experts to discuss some of the methodological opportunities and challenges associated with understanding and modeling of coupled social-ecological responses to climate variability and change in Arctic marine systems.

It successfully provided a forum for the SEARCH and DAMOCLES (Developing Arctic Modeling and Observing Capabilities for Long-term Environmental Studies) scientific communities to inform one another of their respective activities, discuss different approaches to similar research topics, and plan future collaboration - the impact of climate variability and change on human communities which is a common research theme within the three international research programmes DAMOCLES, SEARCH and S4D (SEARCHforDAMOCLES).

For information on the 2008 workshop, please look here.

In 2009, we will continue this effort with the '2nd S4D workshop 'Modelling coupled social-ecological responses to climate variability and change in Arctic marine systems'.

The second S4D workshop is a continuation of this effort and will focus on a set of key questions, set out below, whilst attempting to broaden the perspectives, and nationalities, represented at the workshop.

The intended outcome of the workshop will be a set of answers to the key questions, defined in advance, and fostering of progress both within and beyond the DAMOCLES, SEARCH and S4D communities with respect to the human dimension of change in the Arctic.

Key questions

The following key questions will be treated at the workshop:

Fisheries and Climate

• Which is the nature of links between marine physical parameters and fish populations/fisheries?
• Which of these links are established and how is it possible to incorporate them into simple as well as complex models?

Fisheries and the Local and Regional Economy

• What is the role and importance of fisheries for local/regional economies, and which methods can be best used to model this relationship?

• Which approaches are applicable to extract measures of vulnerability and elasticity of these economies with respect to climate driven changes of fisheries?

Stakeholder Issues

• What can DAMOCLES and SEARCH do for stakeholders?
• What could be the role of modelling for stakeholders?
• Is there a prediction potential with respect to fisheries relevant data for fishermen, or for the local/regional economy?
• Do necessary and possible timescales of prediction overlap?

Agenda and venue

The workshop takes place at the premises of CICERO at the CIENS centre in Oslo. Information how to get there you can find here.

The easiest is to reach CIENS by public transportation (see directions in English at the link below). Once you enter the CIENS building, ask at the main reception to be directed to the meeting room "Via", which is located on the main level of the building, just down the stairs and around the corner from the main entrance to the building. Please have a look at the following links for further information:

                                    Map of the University (in Norwegian)      and      Directions in English.

The hotel for most of the participants is the Rica-Holberg hotel. Please contact Jeremy Lea White (j.l.white at cicero.uio.no) if you have questions with respect to the hotel reservation.

Contact point for the workshop is Michael Karcher (michael at oasys-research.de)

The preliminary agenda for the workshop is as follows:

Monday, 14. September 2009

11.00

Welcome and introduction

11.30-12.00

Hjalmar Hatun (Faroe Fisheries Institute):

Large bio-geographical shifts in the north-eastern Atlantic Ocean: From the subpolar gyre, via plankton, to blue whiting and pilot whales

12.00-12.30

Geir Odd Johansen (IMR)

Expected Change in Fisheries in the Barents Sea: preliminary results on the relationship between climate and the spatial distribution of commercial fish species

12.30-14.00

Lunch

14.00-14.30

Michael Karcher (OASys):

Ocean Climate and coastal cod Fisheries in Norway, status of an adjoint sensitivity study for DAMOCLES

14.30-15.00

Nils Arne Ekerhovd (SNF Bergen):

Climate change and international fisheries agreements

15.00-15.30

Michael Ebeling (vTI):

Modelling socio-economic impact of climate change: The case of the coastal cod fishery in Northern Norway

15:30-16:00

Coffee Break

16.00-16.30

Cecilie Kvamme (IMR):

Expected Change in Fisheries in the Barents Sea: How may spatial distribution of commercial fish species influence fisheries?

16.30-17.00

Dorothy Dankel (IMR):

How modelling can help mitigate stakeholder conflicts and aid in consensus policy-making.

19:00

Joint Dinner

Tuesday, 15. September 2009

10:00 -10:30

Grete Hovelsrud, Jennifer West(CICERO):

Data considerations in understanding vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change in the coastal fisheries: findings from Finnmark County, Northern Norway

10:30-11:00

Matt Berman , Marie Lowe, Jack Kruse (Univ Alaska):

The Arctic Observation Network: Social Indicators Project

11:30-12:00

Anna Stammler Gossmann(Arctic Centre-Univ. Lappland)

Coastal economies and climate in North West Russia

12:00-12:30

Round up and closure of the Workshop

12.30-14.00

Lunch

Additional brainstorming Session on:

Interfaces of Industry and Arctic Research

14.00-14.30

Jean Claude Gascard (UPMC Paris, DAMOCLES Chairman):

TbA

14.30-15.00

Michael Karcher (OASys)

Report on the 'Workshop on seasonal forecast in the Barents Sea', related to the Shtokman Development, (at Norw. Met. Inst., Oslo, April 2009)

15:00-16:00

Open Discussion

16:00

Closure